When a defiant President continues unconstitutional actions with external support, D - FARPAE is the solution for Maldives Crisis

Article by Dijo Thomas

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Published on 16 Feb 2018

When a defiant President continues unconstitutional actions with external support, D - FARPAE is the solution for Maldives Crisis

In a cold morning on 3 November 1988, it was serene day as usual, in my home village near Kottayam, Kerala, except for one significant thing. The usual musical sounds of different hues of bird species in my lush green village was drowned by some bigger birds flying even higher – the beautiful metal birds of Indian Air Force belonging to the An-32 & Il-76 species. Though I was only a class eight student at that time, as I was deeply interested in Defence & Foreign affairs, it was very clear that a lot of military planes meant only one thing – a military engagement with one of our southern neighbours. Indeed, later we came to know that it was Operation Cactus, in Maldives.

Fed up with India’s long time stand of not responding to even serious threats from neighbouring countries, even when warranted, I expressed my deep happiness in India taking a firm action, only to be scolded by my relatives, as they were apprehensive of a war. A debate still very relevant in the national context.

India lacks D-FARPAE

Indian political leaders, traditionally, were apprehensive in using the Pro-active action and / or Military option {or D-FARPAE - Pronounced as D - FarPay}, even when warranted. I have named Timely, Necessary use of Solid Diplomatic efforts; or when that fails, in rare cases use of minimum military Force required, to solve external threats, which has serious consiquenses for India  as D-FARPAE ie, Defence-Foreign Affairs Related Pro-Active Engagement. The above stated attitude of politicians, abstaining from D-FARPAE even though earned us a label of "Country that stands for peace"; if you analyse in the macro level, were counterproductive most of the time. The continuing terrorist actions by Pakistan are the best example to show the dangers in not implementing D-FARPAE at the right time.

  

Due to this irrational & paranoid aversion for Pro-active action / Military option, even when unavoidable; had led to numerous and substantial setbacks economically, politically, militarily etc. For India. Some of them plague us even today. Maldives itself is a very good example. It is time for us to learn from history and avoid repeating mistakes made in the past, and most importantly start using D-FARPAE during international crisis, to achieve positive results.

When Mohamed Nasheed, Maldives' first democratically-elected President, was unlawfully ousted in 2012, India kept mum. To be very frank, his over smartness to ignore India, a long term trusted ally, landed him in the present soup.

This eventually led to Abdulla Yameen being elected as the President. Though he pretended to be India's friend in the beginning, he later dumped India for China. Thus India had an unnecessary security complication right in its doorstep. A classic example of problems arising due to Indian leadership's lack of implementing D-FARPAE.

When all important factors regarding both Military & Foreign Affairs is analysed in depth, it is best for us to send in the Indian Army and restore Democracy in the island nation. Not much protest will arise, either domestically in Maldives or in the International arena, other than China, which is quite expected. China is trying to prevent India from engaging there and making desperate statements against “foreign involvement.”

Will China be able to stop India’s Military intervention in Maldives?

China will not be able to do anything to prevent India's military intervention in Maldives, if India choose to do so. However much they want to. As a Defence & Foreign Analyst, I can vouch that China doesn’t have the military might to challenge India in the Indian Ocean region. Nor do they have the diplomatic clout to prevent India’s action in Maldives. As most nations, especially Asian ones view China as a regional bully.

China initiating an Army or Air Force operation in Indian Ocean region against India is totally out of question. They simply do not have the required strength. Their Navy do not have the capacity to challenge India anywhere in the waters around us with Naval ships. The only way they can try is with submarines, but that will be suicidal for them, both militarily and politically. Therefore under no circumstances will China try to prevent Indian intervention.

Order of Battle

India can successfully conduct the operation, even when you take China factor into account, with just five multipurpose / ASW Frigates / Corvettes in addition to two Shardul class amphibious warfare vessels to transport about thousand troops. One squadron of Su-30 stationed in Thiruvananthapuram will provide more than enough air cover. I will strongly advise against Para dropping or landing IAF transports in Male airport as during Operation Cactus due to various reasons. 

There is more to the Maldivian crisis than what meets the eye

Yameen is breaking laws one after the other. He is also giving least consideration for mounting international pressure. There is a reason for his arrogance in both instances, which is China, with its behind the scene support for his illegal activities. When China is playing an unlawful game in its backyard, India has no choice but to activate D-FARPAE.

Operation Cactus

The present operation will be a little harder than Operation Cactus, India's military action on 3 November 1988, when armed mercenaries of the PLOTE tried to overthrow President Gayoom in Maldives. Hours after the appeal from President Gayoom Indian paratroopers restored control of the capital to his government.

In any crisis, even other than political, India is the only nation that can effectively assist Maldives, on time. For example, when Maldives suffered a serious potable water crisis in 2014 India was the first country to offer assistance with 10 and Two Indian naval vessels.

Does the situation warrant India’s intervention?

 The Opposition, Former Presidents Gayoom and Nasheed, Supreme Court Chief Justice all have requested India's intervention. President Yameen has violated the Constitution and Rule of Law in multiple issues. Islamic militants may also take advantage of the situation. All these warrants proactive stand by India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi can use his strong rapport with world leaders to shore up support in India's action.

The people of Maldives may try to solve this problem themselves by staring a violent mass agitation, but that will have many serious consequences. Maybe the Indian security establishment is waiting just for that. But let me remind that it will not serve the expected strategic purpose for us, to put it mildly. 

Strategically for India, it is imperative to send in our Army as early as possible, and throw out an illegal President, which is a justifiable action anyway. The other option is not as beneficial for either the people of Maldives or India. It will also serve as a strong warning for others also; those who want to play the China card against India.

India had maintained restrain, but both President of Maldives and China have taken it too far. 

Same as it is totally unethical to start an unnecessary war, it is not right to shun away from a military option, when a grave crisis situation demands. Time for Indian soldiers to sail in and solve the crisis.

 .      Dijo Thomas       . 

Defence Analyst 

Foreign Affairs Analyst
Strategic Analyst